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3 possibilities in Chinese leaders’ battle before 20th National Congress

With the ambition to continue holding power at the 20th National Congress, what obstructions is Xi Jinping facing before the congress?

Xi Jinping has confronted three significant issues since the 19th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party:

  • the U.S.–China trade war
  • the anti–China campaign in Hong Kong
  • the spread of the “Chinese Communist virus” from Wuhan to the rest of the world

These three incidents were the culmination of a succession of deep-seated troubles that had evolved throughout Jiang Zemin’s administration and “emperorship.”

Before the 19th Communist Party Congress in 2017, Jiang Zemin and Zeng Qinghong were Xi’s key political opponents; they will continue to be Xi’s primary political opponents before the 20th National Congress, held this year.

It is essential to highlight that—right now—Jiang, Zeng, and their allies are attempting to remove Xi at any cost. 

Will Xi depose Jiang and Zeng ahead of the 20th Communist Party’s Congress?

There are three possible scenarios for the coming election.

First, before the 20th CCP Congress, Jiang, Zeng, and their cronies will undoubtedly gather all forces at home and abroad to fight Xi Jinping, and Xi will have a “counterforce” to fight Jiang and Zeng’s cooperation. 

Second, Jiang and Zeng brutally repressed the people in China internally and sold people’s land to foreigners. The people in China were outraged and would be happy if Xi took down Jiang and Zeng.

Third, Xi has enough information to accuse Jiang and Zeng of corruption crimes as part of his anti-corruption campaign. 

All in all, it is impossible to overlook Xi’s three critical weaknesses.

First, Xi has made the preservation of his life and power contingent on the survival of his Party, yet the CCP is so corrupt that it is unable to change. Therefore, it is questionable if Xi can save the Communist Party in China after all. Dong Hong, the former head of the central inspection team, a full-time anti-corruption campaigner, is a severe corrupt element in the Party. Hong was sentenced to death on January 28th after taking bribes worth $72.3 million.

Second, Xi only has a small number of individuals at his disposal. Xi’s anti-corruption campaign now mainly relies on Zhao Le Yi, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China and secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection.

Zhao Le Yi, indeed, belongs to Jiang and Zeng’s faction. Zhao’s predecessor and successor were eliminated; therefore, Xi’s relying on Zhao Le Yi to depose Jiang and Zeng is quite dubious. 

There will undoubtedly be a vicious war between Xi and Jiang and Zeng before the 20th Communist Party Congress, but it’s still unclear if Xi will defeat Jiang and Zeng.

Whether or not Xi deposes Jiang and Zeng, the Chinese Communist Party is doomed as the Party’s leaders part ways in the internal conflict.

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